If you haven’t already, you may want to read Part One (1) of this series: “What you need to know about “WUHAN-CoV”, Chinese Coronavirus – and what they aren’t telling you“. It has some more technical information on the Virus, and some thoughts that may be helpful.
In this update I am going to share some information, and provide some perspective, regarding what the true death rates of this plague are, and some of the most affected populations, and what impact it is going to have.
We are going to start by analyzing the chart of Cases and Deaths from the last few weeks, which is the chart at top of page. That pink line across the center marks the day that the Chinese changed the way they report cases. When you look at the days leading up to that, you can see that the Death rates were already increasing. But in the past week, after the change in reporting, the numbers have dramatically started climbing… especially the DAILY Death Rates. Disclaimer: I am not taking the Feb 19th number of 22% seriously as China has once again changed their reporting parameters.
First point to think about is that this entire Outbreak is still in its infancy, and is a very recent event. Exponential spread didn’t really start taking off until earlier this month, so there has been a lag in a lot of people actually getting the virus, and then eventually dying. An initial study showed that the average time from initial symptoms to death ranged from 10 – 20 days, so it takes some time for this disease to progress from the initially reported infection stage. What we are starting to see is the Deaths catching up to the initial Infections (Cases). Remembering that WUHAN-CoV is directly related to SARS (9-15% Fatality Rate) and MERS (35-40% Fatality Rate) it really isn’t surprising that the numbers would increase.
The second point I want to make is that these Death Rates are centered in the Older Population, which makes the Death rates in that Age Group MUCH HIGHER. A Report of Death Rates by Age shows that people under 40 have only a 0.2% chance of dying. The disease is usually either asymptomatic or mild in this younger population. In the 40-49 year old category the death rate jumps to 0.4%. At 50 – 59 years old the case fatality rate is 1.3%. 60 -69 year olds die at a rate of 3.6%; 70-79 year olds risk of dying jumps to 8%. At ages of 80 and above the Death Rate is over 14%.
Now I know that the above sounds really bad, but actually, it is much worse.
Go back to the Chart at the top of the page. Those death-by-age numbers I just gave you correlate to the “Total Death Rate (%)” which are a lot lower than the “Daily Death Rate (%)” numbers, which are more reflective of the current death rates. Due to this fact, the Report of Death Rates by Age numbers are probably substantially low, possibly by a factor of two, so those numbers are probably closer to the following: Age 50 – 59 years old – 2.6%. 60 -69 year old – 7.2%; 70-79 year old – 16.0%. At ages of 80 and above – over 28.0%.
I think it gets even worse than that. Here is why.
For every person that is dying, we have several more that are having to go to the Intensive Care Units (ICU) in hospital, and almost 1/2 of those are requiring Mechanical Ventilation just to help them breath and keep them alive. Let me make this point clear…. that without intensive hospitalization support, including mechanical ventilation, many of those people would be dying too. It is probable that as healthcare systems become overburdened, the levels of care on an individual basis will be reduced, and this could also push death rates up. One number that is increasingly disturbing is the low “Cured” rate. There are an increasing number of people that are neither Dead, nor Cured. That means they are still sick, and my guess is that some of these will die as well before all is over. Again, this is a long, slow illness.
There are three factors that will play an important part in the collapse of the healthcare systems, and leave many people on their own (similar to what reports coming out of China are indicating is happening there):
- Limited Staff
This Virus is already transmitting rampantly in hospital settings, including among healthcare providers, doctors, nurses, support staff, etc. In the SARS outbreak we saw medical professionals “abandoning their posts” in fear. There are already some reports of this in China, and they have engaged the military to assist. It is inevitable that staff shortages (via abandonment or illness) will put pressure on healthcare systems as the situation progresses, and spread increases outside China. - Limited Supplies
Medical Supplies are in increasingly short supply. In just the Hubei/Wuhan province of China they are sucking up medical supplies from the rest of the country, and already Global Supplies are flowing into China in the hopes that this front line battle can stop the virus. But this is a hopeless cause, and is simply resulting in Countries depleting their own supplies that will be needed soon enough for their own populations. Already you see shortages in China, and as the leading edge of panic buying/stocking begins in other countries (already the Prepper Networks in the US and other Countries are buying up supplies and promoting it to their members – wisely so if you ask me) this behavior will escalate suddenly at some point and you will see massive depletion of masks, protective gear, medications, herbal remedies, emergency stores, etc. This will put pressure on medical supplies as well. As Masks and other protective gear becomes limited, this will also reinforce Point 1 – and will increase the number of Healthcare Workers and Hospital Support Staff that decides it isn’t worth the risk to show up for work. - Limited Bedspace
Lastly, hospitals will simply become overwhelmed by the sheer numbers of cases. In China they are already building entire new hospitals to handle the cases. Making this even worse is the long, slow, drawn out nature of this disease. It develops slowly into pneumonia and recovery times can be weeks or months. Put it this way…. imagine wave after wave of people flooding into hospitals, at a much higher rate than people are cycling out. Bedspace is simply not going to be there.
Some other random thoughts for people to think about:
A) As we see from the Cruise Ship stories – these sorts of places can literally become Infectious Death Traps. As I have previously written about, the spread of this virus through Aerosolized Particles floating through ductwork is going to make any sort of confined area / building or facility a very high risk contagion area. One sick person can spread the virus into a population of hundreds, or thousands. And it spirals upward and out of control over time, spread increasing as more people get sick. Hospitals, Prisons, Nursing Homes, Cruise Ships, Trains, Planes, Subways and other similar areas may become outbreak epicenters – anywhere people are clustered together – especially for extended living situations. Already we are starting to see “Mandatory Quarantines” across the globe, including in the United States. People need to be prepared for Mass Forced Quarantine Centers and Martial law, similar to what is already being seen in China. An important aspect to consider is this…. if you put yourself in a high risk situation in which Offiials can say that you “might” have been exposed, then Officials can legally detain you, and then possibly place in you in a confined containment and quarantine facility with other “potentially exposed” persons. Think about that Japanese Cruise ship…. One (1) initial case spread to over 600+ people.
B) Middle Aged Parents, Older and Extended Families are going to be placed in especially difficult situations. Parents over 40 start entering into a much higher risk category. Often times our children are going to be developing mild symptoms, maybe no symptoms. But when they bring home what may appear to be an ordinary “cold” and the parent catches it – that could result in the child losing a mother or a father through death. As this fact sinks in, societal behavior is going to change dramatically. For grandparents the risk of death from visiting grandchildren is going to increase dramatically. To be blunt – the elderly may die in numbers so great that it will change the entire demographics of society.
C) I will save economic collapse, monetary collapse discussions for a later date. It isn’t rocket science if one starts connecting the cause-and-effect dots together. All I will say on this matter is that people need to be aware that the “booming economy” party could end very abruptly, and plan accordingly.
The time to prepare is now. Mentally, Physically, and Materially. Start thinking about the changes that may be coming, and take action accordingly to your personal family situation. The last point I am going to make is this… think of this as a Global Snowstorm. You may say to yourself “I have time to prepare because it is over in China, or it is out in California, or some other faraway location” – but in today’s world our supply chains are global. Right now, China is not manufacturing, and their 2 billion people are actually starting to buy up a lot of the medical supply chain. Here in the US, the first place people will go to buy herbal remedies, home oxygen machines, masks, etc is Amazon, and some things are already getting in short supply. So back to that snow storm…. don’t be the person that walks into the grocery an hour before the Weather Channel says the blizzard is going to hit, and act surprised that all the milk and bread is already gone. That is a parable by the way – I am talking about much more than perishable grocery items. Sometimes in a snowstorm, the power goes out. Replacement parts on electrical grid components, transformers, etc. are also part of a global supply chain – a global supply chain that is currently being disrupted and could get worse. Average citizens need to start stretching their imaginations and doing a little thinking about the possibilities of what they could be facing. Those “preppers” that everyone has laughed at for years are probably way ahead of the game. I’m betting Prepper Facebook Groups are seeing a big uptick about now, or will be as we get closer. My concern is that people are not going to be prepared for how fast supply disruptions and societal changes could hit daily lives – and they are woefully unprepared for what is coming.
Wuhan is Coming, and this is your early weather alert. People need to be planning for extended home isolation, because the best way to not die from Wuhan – is to not catch it in the first place.
Peace,
– david
*If you haven’t already, you may want to read Part One (1) of this series: “What you need to know about “WUHAN-CoV”, Chinese Coronavirus – and what they aren’t telling you“. It has some more technical information on the Virus, and some thoughts that may be helpful.
Disclaimer: The February 19th “Daily Death Rate %” of 22.67% is most likely unreliable and slightly overstated, as I am hearing that China has once again changed their reporting method. That doesn’t discount the clear fact that rates overall are increasing substantially, and I believe for all the reasons provided herein.
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